Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Trump's Last 70 Days

Barring the unlikely, Donald Trump has 70 days left as President of the United States. The shot clock for Trump's time as Executive-in-Charge is approaching zero, but time has not fully expired. There remains enough time for President Trump to hit a game-winning three and walk off the court cloaked in glory.

Prior presidents have used their last bits of lame-duckery to waste time, steal White House property, and pardon friends. This is the minimum of what the talking heads expect Trump to do. Today's NY Times is full of hyperbolic examples, including an article headlined "Trump Still Has 70 Days to Wreak Havoc Around the World."

President Trump should flip the narrative. Trump can aim higher, bigger, and bolder. He can define history in a way that most presidents cannot by seizing on a specific opportunity this election has revealed. What follows is a proposal for creating a golden legacy.
 
During the last five years, the mainstream media has persistently attacked Trump as a racist. No amount of denial was enough. They perceived Trump's refusal to be yoked with white guilt as a critical disqualifying characteristic. Refusing to bend-the-knee to those in the burgeoning racial grievance industry was expected to cripple Trump's ability to expand his popularity.
 
And yet, in a shock to many, Trump made massive inroads with minority voters.
 
If we demographically divide the US into Male or Female x White / Black / Hispanic / Asian, during the 2020 election, the only demographic that Trump did not improve on his 2016 numbers with were white males. 
 
Read that again.
 
Trump improved with every demographic except straight white males. He improved with Asian men, black women, and nearly every other combination you can think of. He also doubled his support from LGBT voters. If you were not aware of this shift, you can be forgiven. This fact is so disconcerting to the mainstream media that they worry merely reporting on it will breathe life into it. Why it happened is not overly relevant to this essay. The fact that it happened is what matters. This creates opportunity.
 
Trump and Republicans did the unexpected: they made gains with people Democrats believe they own. This begs the question, "how do Republicans hold the ground and ensure more people see the broadness of their tent?"
 
Republicans are the party of individual rights. For a long time, and to the permanent shame of our country, those rights did not fully convey to certain groups, and, in the 1960s, Democrats pivoted from antagonists of minorities to defender of them. With Democrats staking out ground as protector of minority rights, Republicans allowed themselves to be painted as the opposition. Republicans have constantly rejected this claim but could not seem to rid themselves of its shadow. In an era of BLM and "kids in cages", it would seem to be stickier than ever.
 
Yet the 2020 election revealed a shift. To Democrats' amazement, Republicans expanded their base across nearly every group. Democrats ceded moral high ground by shifting from a party of minority protection to a party that uses a hierarchy of group identities as a tool of oppression. With Democrats increasingly focused on labeling and sorting people by skin pigment, gender, and sexuality, a window opened for Republicans.

The ultimate minority is the individual. If you protect individual rights, you inherently protect minority rights. There is no predetermined hierarchy in a society that values the inherent worth of all individuals equally, even if their circumstances differ. What Trump seems to have tapped into is the reality that many members of minority groups do not want to be measured by their skin pigmentation. They want to be measured by their abilities, their contributions, and the content of their character. In sum, their individuality.
 
This brings us back to Trump's last 70 days.
 
How will history brand Donald Trump?
 
Academics are the authors of history and academics hate Trump. They will label him a divisive race-baiter. To establish a different brand, he must forcefully counter that narrative through action, not just words. He has to leave a legacy that refutes that accusation.
 
Trump and congressional Republicans should quickly introduce a criminal justice reform act. Let's call it the Federal Reevaluation of Enforcement Effectiveness Act - the FREE Act. The FREE Act will support states' rights, individual liberty, and overly penalized minority communities.
 
On recent social issues such as gay marriage, states led the way on changing the legal backdrop. The Federal government was never meaningfully involved in marriage and largely did not need to legislate on the matter. 

The drug crime situation is different. While states again are leading the way, there are strong federal laws and regulations that criminalize the actions of many individuals that states view as non-criminal. Worst of all, unnecessary criminalization disproportionately hurts minority communities.
 
As of today, forty-three states have some form of legalized marijuana, with each election cycle further expanding acceptance. These states have either fully legalized it, decriminalized it, or allowed for marijuana for medical use. Increasingly, local police and prosecutors are not enforcing the few laws that remain. 

Principled Republicans know that drug crime is and should remain a states' rights issue. Republicans have an opportunity to stand on principle and magnify the overwhelming will of the people by fully relinquishing that power back to the states. 
 
If the Republican party could define its own brand, it would be something like "limited government, states' rights, and individual liberty." All three apply to the FREE Act. 

The FREE Act would remove marijuana and natural psychedelics (e.g., mushrooms) from DEA drug scheduling. Despite their fairly benign natures, both are currently classified as Schedule 1 drugs, lumped alongside heroin, meth, and crack. This characterization has contributed to the mass incarceration of nonviolent drug offenders and disproportionately harmed minority communities. We now know that marijuana and natural psychedelics are far less dangerous than alcohol and tobacco. They are also largely nonaddictive.
 
The FREE Act should also pardon and expunge the records of any current or prior non-violent Federal offenders related to these drugs. Likewise, President Trump should consider providing mass pardons to many additional non-violent drug offenders. This is a chance to bring the Republican brand to minority communities, and dramatically improve the party's image.
 
While I am personally for limiting federal spending, it is important to acknowledge worries about recidivistic behavior and offer a helping hand to those returning to society. To improve transitions back into free society, the Federal government should include funds for treatment and education programs that are made available to any state that likewise decriminalizes marijuana and psychedelics. Further, it should provide funding to states for investment in skills development and education for newly released citizens. Those released as a result of this legislation would also be eligible to receive a one-time incentive payment of $2000 after a period of non-criminal behavior (e.g., 6 months with no criminal charges unlocks a $2000 cash payment, which is much cheaper than keeping them in "the system"). The overall idea is to provide a social onramp that improves the odds of successful societal re-entry.  

Moral Republicans can comfortably acknowledge mistakes that happened under their watch, even if not their fault, and seek to rectify them. Supporting a soft landing for those released can be part of a healthy reckoning.
 
When Joe Biden becomes president, Democrats are extremely likely to pursue criminal justice reform. They will receive support from many Republicans (especially more Libertarian-leaning senators, like Rand Paul) and will easily pass reasonable legislation.
 
The question for President Trump and congressional Republicans becomes, "who gets the credit?"
 
Even if many Republicans support reform, some are likely to oppose it. If Republicans wait for Democrats to draft and propose reforms, only to have some in the GOP vote against it, Republicans risk undermining their newly expanded base.
 
By allowing Trump to lead the charge now, Republicans can change the narrative. Practically speaking, Democrats cannot fight against the FREE Act, lest they completely undermine their brand. Democrats will support this legislation allowing Trump to finish his service on a unifying, bipartisan note. With Democrats supporting it, the fact that the FREE Act will easily pass both houses allows Republicans who are deeply opposed to safely vote "no" without actually blocking progress. On the other hand, Republicans in purple states can safely support the legislation, with the knowledge that they are broadening their base and undermining Democrat talking points. Even Republicans who are on the fence can support this from a principled 10th amendment / states' rights position, saying "look, I'm personally against drugs, but, like abortion and marriage, this is not a Federal issue. We want a small Federal government that stays out of your home and your business. You and your community should decide what's right for you." This language also appeals to Libertarian-leaning voters, whose refusal to support Republicans made the difference in the recent presidential election.
 
Importantly, Trump and Republicans would forever mortally wound the ability to label them racists, having passed one of the most significant laws benefitting minority communities in history. He would be remembered as laying the groundwork for reuniting small children with their fathers and returning incarcerated young men to their moms. Thousands upon thousands of (primarily) men have been unnecessarily locked up and separated from their families. By providing funding for education, skills training, and positive incentives, Trump will also be remembered for investing in those communities.
 
The reality is social mores have already spoken on this issue. The dominos are falling, and a Biden presidency will get this done. Joe Biden wants to pass criminal justice reform if for no other reason than to erase the stain of having his name attached to awful crime legislation from the 80s and 90s. Likewise, Kamala Harris wants 2024's voters to forget that she aggressively prosecuted nonviolent drug offenders with a rare fervor. They understand that sweeping criminal justice reform is their path to absolution.
 
Trump and the Republicans have a chance to steal that thunder from Democrats, while aligning themselves with our inevitable future, and doing so for principled reasons. Trump has a chance to use his final days to go down in history as a re-uniter of families. He can be remembered as a champion of states' rights, minority communities, and individual liberty. Doing this will strengthen the long-term health of the GOP, allowing him to leave office a hero who broadened the tent and future-proofed the party. It is also the right moral action.
 
Time is of the essence. This is straightforward legislation and can be passed quickly:
  • Constitutionally, states retain the authority to maintain their own laws and regulations
  • Federally decriminalize marijuana and naturally occurring psychedelics 
    • Remove from DEA schedule 1
    • End Federal banking restrictions for businesses in these industries
  • Pardon and expunge records for any current and previous non-violent offenders of these bygone laws
  • Provide a safety net to improve transitions
    • Block grant funds for states to educate and provide treatment
    • Block grant incentives to states that decriminalize and choose to release non-violent drug offenders
    • Block grant funds for skills training for citizens with expunged records and other former criminals, to reduce recidivism and improve the economic and social health of their communities
    • Provide direct monetary incentives to citizens who maintain non-criminal behavior after release
 70 days and counting. If you are President Trump, there is no time to waste. Do the right thing. Broaden the tent. Write your own history. 
 
Godspeed. 
 

 
Author Notes: 
  1. It took a lot of hunting to find articles that talk about the change in demographic voting behavior. Examples of discussion of Trump demographic shifts are CNN voters shift, Brookings scrambling bases, Asian American support, LGBT support, and an example of the shift.
  2. Link to map of the United States, color-coded by current policy on marijuana.
  3. On a personal level, I support decriminalizing nearly all drugs at the Federal level. I don't propose that in the FREE Act because I think "hard" drugs like heroin are a more challenging discussion and this opportunity is timebound. Because they are generally safe and non-addictive, marijuana and mushrooms are easy to federally decriminalize, allowing states to create their own rules. Start with the simple, and go from there. Do not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.