Monday, November 30, 2009

Inflation Vs. Deflation: Peter Schiff Gives The Definitive Interview

Peter Schiff apparently agrees with The Singularity thesis. This is the best interview I've heard about the inflation/deflation argument.

Schiff comes out on the side of inflation. He notes that deflationists are right, but only if they price assets in gold which is what their set of comparable history is relative to. Gold can't be printed and so credit collapses and their natural outcomes should be measured against that benchmark, rather than fiat currency.

Schiff also addresses why the U.S. will not be "fortunate" enough to have the Japan outcome (as TILB has said several times, Japan is our upside case). The differences are stark and important: Japan was a creditor nation, Japan had huge government and private savings, Japan had a budget surplus, Japan was a net exporter, the rest of the world didn't slow down with Japan, Japan's underlying economic engine remained robust throughout the period, etc., etc.